The tug-of-war between market expectations of rate cuts and the Federal Reserve’s efforts to manage those expectations persists as we enter the new year. Last week, markets indicated a nearly 75% probability of rate cuts beginning in March, but as of Thursday this week, that probability has decreased to around 60%. This week’s release of the most recent Fed minutes adopted a notably more hawkish tone compared to Fed Chair Powell’s recent press conference. Consequently, this shift further prompted a reassessment of the bets on rate cuts for 2024, leading to continued increases in yields during the latter part of the week.
Friday was a pivotal day marked on every investor’s calendar. Both the non-farm payroll and unemployment rate exceeded expectations, indicating a relatively resilient labor market despite its perceived weakening over the past couple of months. The pressing question for investors now revolves around whether the Fed will be as inclined to reduce rates given the apparent strength of the economy, as suggested by the data. This ongoing tug-of-war is far from reaching a conclusion, and because of this expect volatility to continue.
It might be a good idea to get buy or sell during this time. When interest rates do drop, think about refinancing at a lower rate. Lower rate = Lower payment.
In the dynamic realm of real estate, success often hinges on the ability to make sound decisions, anticipate market trends, and connect with clients on a personal level. While data analysis, negotiation skills, and market knowledge are crucial, there’s another facet that can significantly impact your effectiveness as a realtor: your intuitive gifts. This blog will delve into how you can tap into your intuitive abilities to excel in the world of real estate.
Understanding Intuition in Real Estate:
Intuition is often referred to as a ‘gut feeling’ or a ‘sixth sense.’ It’s the ability to make quick, seemingly irrational decisions based on a combination of past experiences, subconscious cues, and an innate understanding of the situation. In the realm of real estate, intuition can play a pivotal role in guiding you through complex negotiations, helping you identify potential issues in properties, and even predicting market shifts before they happen.
Strengthening Your Connection to the Market:
Being in tune with the market is essential for any realtor. Intuitive realtors possess an uncanny ability to pick up on subtle shifts in buyer preferences, neighborhood dynamics, and market trends. This can give you a competitive edge by allowing you to position properties in a way that resonates with potential buyers on a deeper level.
Building Rapport with Clients:
Your clients are not just looking for a property; they’re searching for a place that aligns with their dreams and aspirations. Developing a strong rapport is crucial for understanding their needs at a profound level. Intuitive realtors can discern unspoken desires, helping them match clients with homes that resonate emotionally, creating a win-win scenario for both parties.
Navigating Negotiations Intuitively:
Negotiation is an integral part of real estate, and intuitive realtors excel in this area. By keenly observing body language, tone, and subtle cues during negotiations, you can uncover hidden motivations and tailor your approach accordingly. This can lead to more successful outcomes and satisfied clients.
Assessing Properties with a Deeper Insight:
Intuitive realtors often have an innate ability to sense whether a property is a good fit for a particular client. Beyond the physical attributes, they can detect the energy of a space and whether it aligns with a client’s lifestyle and goals. This skill can save time, prevent wasted resources, and foster more genuine connections.
Trusting Your Instincts in Decision-Making:
In a fast-paced industry like real estate, decisions often need to be made swiftly. Your intuition can be your guide in situations where data might be limited or conflicting. By combining rational analysis with your intuitive insights, you can make well-rounded choices that are more likely to lead to positive outcomes.
Developing Your Intuitive Abilities:
If you’re not already in touch with your intuitive side, there are ways to nurture and develop these skills. Meditation, mindfulness practices, and self-awareness exercises can help you tap into your innate intuition. Additionally, seeking guidance from mentors or colleagues who value intuition in their real estate approach can provide invaluable insights.
In the world of real estate, intuitive gifts are a unique asset that can set you apart from the competition. By understanding, cultivating, and leveraging your intuitive abilities, you can create a more profound impact on your clients’ lives and achieve greater success in your real estate endeavors. Remember, the combination of data-driven decisions and intuitive insights can be a powerful duo in this ever-evolving industry.
An agent is a really important part of selling your home because they bring a lot of skill and expertise to the sales process.
They’ll explain what’s happening today, what that means for you, and how to price and market your house. They’re also skilled negotiators and well versed in the contracts and disclosures involved.
Let’s connect to ensure you have an expert helping you sell your house successfully.
Two Questions To Ask Yourself if You’re Considering Buying a Home
If you’re thinking of buying a home, chances are you’re paying attention to just about everything you hear about the housing market. And you’re getting your information from a variety of channels: the news, social media, your real estate agent, conversations with friends and loved ones, overhearing someone chatting at the local supermarket, the list goes on and on. Most likely, home prices and mortgage rates are coming up a lot.
To help cut through the noise and give you the information you need most, take a look at what the data says. Here are the top two questions you need to ask yourself about home prices and mortgage rates as you make your decision:
1. Where Do I Think Home Prices Are Heading?
One reliable place you can turn to for that information is the Home Price Expectation Survey from Pulsenomics – a survey of a national panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists.
According to the latest release, the experts surveyed are projecting slight depreciation this year (see the red in the graph below). But here’s the context you need most. The worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are actually appreciating again in many markets. Not to mention, the small 0.37% depreciation HPES is showing for 2023 is far from the crash some people originally said would happen.
Now, let’s look to the future. The green in the graph below shows prices have turned a corner and are expected to appreciate in 2024 and beyond. After this year, the HPES is forecasting home price appreciation returning to more normal levels for the next several years.
So, why does this matter to you? It means your home will likely grow in value and you should gain home equity in the years ahead, but only if you buy now. If you wait, based on these forecasts, the home will only cost you more later on.
2. Where Do I Think Mortgage Rates Are Heading?
Over the past year, mortgage rates have risen in response to economic uncertainty, inflation, and more. We know based on the latest reports that inflation, while still high, has moderated from its peak. This is an encouraging sign for the market and for mortgage rates. Here’s why.
When inflation cools, mortgage rates generally fall in response. This may be why some experts are saying mortgage rates will pull back slightly over the next few quarters and settle somewhere around roughly 5.5 and 6% on average.
But, not even the experts can say with absolute certainty where mortgage rates will be next year, or even next month. That’s because there are so many factors that can impact what happens. So, to give you a lens into the various possible outcomes, here’s what you should consider:
If you buy now and mortgage rates don’t change: You made a good move since home prices are projected to grow with time, so at least you beat rising prices.
If you buy now and mortgage rates fall (as projected): You probably still made a good decision because you got the house before home prices appreciated more. And, you can always refinance your home later on if rates are lower.
If you buy now and mortgage rates rise: If this happens, you made a great decision because you bought before both the price of the home and the mortgage rate went up.
Bottom Line
If you’re thinking about buying a home, you need to know the facts on what’s happening with home prices and mortgage rates. While no one can say for certain where they’ll go, expert projections can give you powerful information to keep you informed. Let’s connect so you have a professional to add in an expert opinion on our local market.
Today’s Housing Inventory Is a Sweet Spot for Sellers
One of the biggest challenges in the housing market right now is how few homes there are for sale compared to the number of people who want to buy them. To help emphasize just how limited housing inventory still is, let’s take a look at the latest information on active listings, or homes for sale in a given month, as it compares to more normal levels.
“On average, active inventory in June was 50.6% below pre-pandemic 2017–2019 levels.”
The graph below helps illustrate this point. It uses historical data to provide a more concrete look at how much the numbers are still lagging behind the level of inventory typical of a more normal market (see graph below):
It’s worth noting that 2020-2022 are not included in this graph. That’s because they were truly abnormal years for the housing market. To make the comparison fair, those have been omitted so they don’t distort the data.
When you compare the orange bars for 2023 with the last normal years for the housing market (2017-2019), you can see the count of active listings is still far below the norm.
What Does This Mean for You?
If you’re thinking about selling your house, that low inventory is why this is a great time to do so. Buyers have fewer choices now than they did in more normal years, and that’s continuing to impact some key statistics in the housing market. For example, sellers will be happy to see the following data from the latest Confidence Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
The percent of homes that sold in less than a month ticked up slightly to 74%.
The median days on market went down to 18 days, showing homes are still selling fast when priced right.
The average number of offers on recently sold homes went up to 3.3 offers.
Bottom Line
When supply is so low, your house is going to be in the spotlight. That’s why sellers are seeing their homes sell a little faster and get more offers right now. If you’ve thought about selling, now’s the time to make a move. Let’s connect to get the process started.
If you’re a homeowner ready to make a move, you may be thinking about using your current house as a short-term rental property instead of selling it. A short-term rental (STR) is typically offered as an alternative to a hotel, and they’re an investment that’s gained popularity in recent years.
While a short-term rental can be a tempting idea, you may find the reality of being responsible for one difficult to take on. Here are some of the challenges you could face if you rent out your house instead of selling it.
A Short-Term Rental Comes with Responsibilities
Successfully managing your house as a short-term rental takes a lot of time and effort. You’ll have to juggle tasks like dealing with reservations, organizing check-ins, and tackling cleaning, landscape, and maintenance duties. Any one of those can feel demanding, but all together it’s a lot to handle.
Short-term rentals experience high turnover rates, as new guests check in and out frequently. This home traffic can lead to increased wear and tear on your property—meaning you may need to make more frequent repairs or replace your furniture, fixtures, and appliances more often.
Think through your ability to make that level of commitment, especially if you plan to use a platform that advertises your rental listing. Most of them have specific requirements hosts must meet. An article from Bankrateexplains:
“Managing a rental property can be time-consuming and challenging. Are you handy and able to make some repairs yourself? If not, do you have a network of affordable contractors you can reach out to in a pinch? Consider whether you want to take on the added responsibility of being a landlord, which means screening tenants and fielding issues, among other responsibilities, or paying for a third party to take care of things instead.”
There’s a lot to consider before taking the leap and converting your house into a short-term rental. If you aren’t ready for the work it takes, it could be wise to sell instead.
Short-Term Rental Regulations
As the short-term rental industry continues to grow, regulations have increased. Legal restrictions commonly include limits on the number of vacation rentals in a particular location. This is especially true in larger cities and tourist destinations where there may be concerns about overcrowding or housing shortages for permanent residents. Restrictions may also apply to the type of property that can be used for short-term rentals.
Many cities also require homeowners to obtain a license or permit before renting out their properties. Nick Del Pego, CEO at Deckard Technologies, explains:
“Renting short-term rentals is considered a business by most local governments, and owners must comply with specific workplace regulations and business licensing rules established in their local communities.”
It is important to thoroughly check whether short-term rentals are regulated or prohibited by the local government and your homeowners association (HOA) before even considering renting out your home.
Bottom Line
Converting your home into a short-term rental isn’t a decision you should make without doing your research. To decide if selling your house is a better alternative, let’s connect today.
If you’re following the news today, you may feel a bit unsure about what’s happening with home prices and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That’s because today’s headlines are painting an unnecessarily negative picture. If we take a year-over-year view, home prices did drop some, but that’s because we’re comparing to a ‘unicorn’ year when prices peaked well beyond the norm.
To avoid an unfair comparison to that previous peak, we need to look at monthly data. And that tells a very different and much more positive story. While local home price trends still vary by market, here’s what the national data tells us.
The graphs below use recent monthlyreports from three sources to show the worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are appreciating nationally.
Looking at this monthly view, we can see the past year in the housing market can be divided into two parts. In the first half of 2022, home prices were going up, and fast. However, starting in July, prices began to go down (shown in red in the graphs above). By around August or September, the trend started to stabilize. But, looking at the most recent data for early 2023, these graphs also show that prices are going up again.
The fact that all three reports show prices have been going up for three or more straight months is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data indicates a national shift is happening – home prices are rising again.
Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, says this about home price trends:
“If I were trying to make a case that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 had definitively ended in January 2023, April’s data would bolster my argument.”
Experts believe one of the reasons prices didn’t crash like some expected is because there aren’t enough available homes for the number of people who want to buy them. Even with today’s mortgage rates, there are more people looking to buy than there are homes available for sale.
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains how more demand than supply keeps upward pressure on prices:
“History has shown that higher rates may take the steam out of rising prices, but it doesn’t cause them to collapse entirely. This is especially true in today’s housing market, where the demand for homes continues to outpace supply, keeping the pressure on house prices.”
Doug Duncan, Senior VP and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, states home price growth is exceeding expectations thanks to that high demand:
“. . . housing prices continue to show stronger growth than what was previously expected . . . Housing’s performance is a testimony to the strength of demographic-related demand . . .”
Here’s How This Affects You
Buyers: If you’ve been holding off on buying because you were worried the value of your home would go down, knowing home prices have bounced back should bring you some relief. It also gives you the opportunity to own something that usually becomes more valuable as time goes on.
Sellers: If you’ve been waiting to sell your house because you were concerned about how changing home prices would affect its value, it might be a good idea to team up with a real estate agent to list your house. You don’t have to wait any longer because the latest data suggests things are turning in your favor.
Bottom Line
If you delayed your moving plans because you were concerned about home prices dropping, the latest data reveals the worst is already over, and prices are appreciating nationally. Let’s get in touch so you know what’s happening with home prices in our area.
